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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."