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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit obstructed from the top if his government led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.