Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.